Make labor costs the foundation of your business case
Labor costs are rising and you feel it immediately in your operation. Robotics and AI are advancing rapidly, but investing remains difficult if you do not have a clear view of how labor costs will develop in the coming years.
Within IP2 Greenhouse Horticulture, an initial labor cost tool has been tested and validated together with growers and technology partners. The tool provides labor cost forecasts per subsector, allowing you to compare labor and automation more effectively in your business case. It helps you move faster, using assumptions that are recognizable and grounded in real practice.
Broad knowledge question
Clarify labor costs before making investment decisions
Growers and technology companies are looking for ways to future-proof labor organization while costs continue to rise and labor remains scarce. Robotics and AI offer solutions, but high investment costs, limited testing opportunities and a lack of confidence make the step significant.
Insight into labor cost developments per subsector helps narrow the gap between technological promise and practical greenhouse application. It allows you to identify earlier where a business case is realistic and where it is not.
Approach
Make it work first, then improve with practical feedback
The tool was developed using a Minimum Viable Product approach. A functional baseline was created first and then refined based on feedback from study groups organized by Glastuinbouw Nederland.
For each subsector, labor cost forecasts were developed using data from Statistics Netherlands and the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. These were complemented by a time series model incorporating macroeconomic factors. Assumptions, data and outcomes were continuously discussed with growers and other industry stakeholders to ensure the tool reflects real investment decision questions.
Objective
One clear benchmark for investment decisions in greenhouse horticulture
The objective was to deliver a working first version that provides growers with concrete, evidence-based insight into expected labor cost developments per subsector.
This creates a stable foundation for strategic investment decisions within IP2 Greenhouse Horticulture. At the same time, technology partners gain insight into where comparisons between labor and automation can already be made and where further development or validation is required.
Results and reflection
Establish reliable labor cost forecasts before expanding toward a full business case
The initial plan was to include more variables in the first version of the tool. However, discussions with growers showed that it was not yet clear which additional factors should be incorporated into a business case tool.
The decision was therefore made to take a first step that delivers immediate value: a tool providing forecasts of labor cost increases per subsector. In a next phase, further research will determine which additional factors are needed to enable a more comprehensive business case calculation.
Successful outcomes:
A first functional tool that provides insight into labor cost development per subsector.
Practical validation through study groups and grower discussions, ensuring results are recognizable and applicable.
A concrete basis within IP2 Greenhouse Horticulture to more quickly reach realistic decisions between labor and automation.
Lessons learned:
A complete business case requires clearer alignment on which additional factors growers and technology partners want to include.
A next phase is needed to select these factors, model them and validate them again in practice.